Step 5: Data analysis and models

All the data from before the project and gathered during the project are processed, analyzed and compiled to realize the mathematical models that will be integrated within the mobile application.

Forest stand module: climate vigilance maps

Climate vigilance maps calibrated on crown dieback

For the six species for which a BioClimSol Index (IBS - see step 1) is available, we are building a vigilance map from the results of this equation. For two of these species, the douglas fir and the common beech, we added the data we gathered (see step 4) to append a database derived from pre-existing douglas and beech plots (within and outside the park territory) that is used to calibrate IBS indices. Therefore, the vigilance maps we built for both these species are more accurate on the Park territory.

Climate vigilance maps calibrated on climate in the realized niche

For the species for which there is no IBS Index yet, we are building vigilance maps calibrated on the climate observed within their realized niche. To do so, we calculated the climate thresholds tolerated by each tree species for the six climate variables that we are studying (see step 2). From these thresholds, we calculated current and future vigilance maps for each of the species we study.

Climate vigilance maps for forest habitats of community interest

The chosen approach to assess the climate vigilance for forest habitats is to test the use of the climate vigilance-maps of the main tree species shaping the natural habitat of community interest (i.e. beech in stand with dense holly growth for Atlantic acidophilous beech forests). In that way, we will test whether the same application can be used for both production and conservation management objectives. The climate vigilance maps provided by the application could point out areas of vigilance for a tree species associated to an habitat (i.e. beech in our example).

Reforestation module

The aim of this module is to give a diagnosis that helps the forest owner or manager to choose the right species for reforestation while taking into account the local context and the future climate. To do so, we are building, from an ecological database constructed by Emmanuel Rouyer (CNPF) that we completed within the FORECCAsT project, a module that can test whether the tree species we are testing is or not within its ecological niche in the area where the application is used. This will be made possible notably thanks to our work on pedology (see step 3).

Back to step n°4 - Building-up "FORECCAsT by BioClimSol" - Go to step n°6

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